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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However the current competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans rising together. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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